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农产品早评200228

2020年02月28日
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  农产品早评20200228

油脂

东南亚即将进入增产季使得棕油目前压力仍大,MPOA发布的数据显示21-20日马来西亚毛棕榈油产量预估环比增17.42%,西马南方棕榈油协会(SPPOMA)数据显示1-25日产量环比增38.84%,增幅扩大,马盘昨日收涨,因称中国有新的买船。国内油脂目前仍处于增库存局面,目前港口食用棕油库存为94.7万吨,去年同期为77.68万吨,豆油商业库存升至120万吨,去年同期为130万吨,目前疫情有所缓解,多地餐饮陆续开业,不过多数还是以外卖形式,需求端较大恢复仍需时日,预计短期油厂库存压力较大,油脂反弹空间有限,保持震荡思路。

 

 

油料

隔夜美豆探低回升,价格跌至九个月低点后空头回补;阿根廷暂停农产品出口登记及市场希冀32日加征关税豁免申请之后中国加大对美豆的采购,不过即便按同样关税,巴西新豆价格仍然较低;此外,USDA一周出口销售33.93万吨,低于市场预估的60-90万吨;主力5月开盘891.5,最高897,最低878.25,收盘895.25,涨0.36%

国内豆粕昨日冲高回落收上影小阳线,上下档均存阻力,基本面多空交织;图形上短期方向依然不明;现货据饲料行业信息网,主流稳定至沿海偏强;主力5月开盘2643,最高2668,最低2642,收盘2646,涨0.49%,减仓20445手;

菜粕强势收涨,收盘站上60日均线(2280),豆菜价差今日收348,较前日大幅收窄25/吨,市场资金憧憬水产旺季到来前的水产饲料企业菜粕采购;5月开盘2271,最高2306,最低2271,收盘2298,涨1.42%,增仓11428手;

菜油昨日低开高走收阳,豆棕油跌势趋缓支持,然图形上仍受制于60日均线(7576);进口菜油今日持平于8010/吨(张家港进口四级菜油);考虑到基本面疫情蔓延对整体油脂需求的影响及菜豆油、菜棕油的高价差,供应端收紧预期驱动的菜油看涨风险较大;5月开盘7486,最高7568,最低7476,收7540,涨0.4%,增仓390手;

操作建议: 两粕菜油继续中期关注。

 

 

白糖

外盘走势:洲际交易所(ICE)原糖期货周三下跌,因油价跌破50美元,此前欧洲和中东出现数百例新型肺炎病例,引发市场的担忧,较低的能源价格将令巴西糖厂生产更多糖,减少乙醇产量。ICE 5月原糖合约收跌0.15美分,或1.02%,结算价报每磅14.54美分。 

消息方面:1、泰国2019/20榨季截止215日共57家糖厂开榨,同比增加1家,累计压榨甘蔗6808万吨,同比减少16.3%;累计产糖735.2万吨,同比减少14.20%,平均产糖率为10.8%,高于上年同期的10.56%2、国内进入收榨阶段,广西已有32家糖厂收榨、广东4家、海南1家。 现货方面:柳州站台白糖报价5820-5840,较前一交易日下调10;南宁仓库白糖报价5830-5950,销量一般。

 

 

苹果

可以说春节管控至今苹果市场上出现了缺货现象导致批发市场上苹果批发价格的上涨。这种上涨现象出现在水果批发市场无货可卖的前提下的。虽然说涨价实际上这种上涨是暂时的,不可持续的。果然不出所料。待市场上大量到货后价格处于稳定甚至有所下跌。西部优质产区诸如甘肃静宁、陕西洛川及富县等走货速度较快,客商调货积极性尚可,果农顺价出货意愿较高。山东产区客户虽有增多但仍不慎理想,果农虽有出货意愿,但成交量增加比较有限。零星产区果农出现急售现象,价格下调明显。

 

 

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

棉花、棉纱

美国国家棉花总会调研结果显示,2020/21年度美国所有棉花(包括陆地棉和pima棉)的意向种植面积同比下降6%-78.5万英亩),降至1300万英亩。国外疫情继续蔓延,受此影响,昨日国内郑棉主力今日跳空低开,全天收跌180/吨。新疆棉轮入上市数量7000吨,实际成交5560吨,成交率79.43%。今日平均成交价格为13715/吨,与前一日成交均价上涨14/吨。下游纺企复工复产情况有所好转,需求恢复缓慢。国外疫情有蔓延趋势,预计郑棉近日将呈弱势震荡走势。

昨日CY2005合约开盘报20960/吨,收盘报20870/吨,较上一交易日跌100/吨,跌幅0.48%。由于纺织厂尚未完全开工,加上运输和物流受阻影响了交易,纺织市场整体市场较为冷清,预计全面恢复要到3月中旬以后。

 

 

玉米、淀粉

玉米2005尾盘强势反弹,收出中阳线于1927;开盘1914,最高1928,最低1913;持仓量增加1.4万手至60.1万手,成交量增加12.7万手至23.6万手。

淀粉2005尾盘反弹,收出中阳线于2241;开盘2226,最高2243,最低2226;持仓量减少0.8万手至10.7万手,成交量增加0.5万手至5.2万手。

新冠疫情的影响预期逐渐减弱,玉米逐渐回归基本面。随着国内新冠疫情逐渐得到控制,农户余粮销售渠道逐渐打通,市场供应有望恢复。进口美玉米系农产品的预期不宜忽视,关注进口规模及时间窗口。需求端的担忧主要来自于畜禽养殖的受损情况及复苏进展;深加工预计缓慢恢复,企业开机率小幅回升,玉米收购量大幅回升,消耗量有所回升,玉米库存持续下滑。预计短期内玉米仍以弱势震荡为主。

 

 

鸡蛋

期货端:昨日鸡蛋大幅收跌,5月合约收盘3367,昨日3509,跌1429月合约收盘4334,昨日4361,跌271月合约收盘4144,昨日4164,跌20。主力基差-5075-9价差-9675-1价差-7779-1价差190

现货端:227日全国鸡蛋整体下跌,现货蛋价2.86/斤,昨日2.89/斤,跌0.03/斤;生猪价格37.32/公斤,昨日37.62/公斤,跌0.30/公斤,淘鸡方面,活禽市场逐步恢复,淘鸡价格稳中有涨。              

观点:近月合约大幅下行,回吐之前涨幅。此前由于疫情好转,交通开始恢复,下游复工增加提升市场对终端消费的预期,部分蛋商囤货赌涨,上周鸡蛋反弹幅度较大。不过因去年10-11月份育雏鸡补栏量都在9000万羽以上的高水平,23月份供应面压力仍然较大,且因全国大部分地区活禽市场仍处于关闭状态,肉禽市场需求未见大起色,短期蛋价承压。不过由于年后养殖利润下降,养殖户补栏意愿不强,或对远月合约构成利好。近期随着活禽市场恢复,关注养殖户老鸡淘汰情况。

 

 

红枣                                                         

上个交易日,红枣主力合约上午呈现震荡的走势,午后出现快速跳水。最终收于10385/吨,较上一交易日-1.28%,成交量5.99万,持仓2.96万。目前,随着疫情形势的好转,部分道路已经可以通行,但各地还是严管群众聚众,红枣交易还是未恢复,仅部分终端批发市场有营业现象,其他中转市场还未开市;但已有部分客商私下进行交易,多是年前备货不多的刚需客商补货为主,行情暂时偏稳,走货有限。

 

 

 

分析师

从业资格证号

投资咨询资格证号

陶朝辉

F0230158

Z0010210

周競

F0263039

Z0015088

王晓蓓

F0272777

Z0010085

陈春雷

F3032143

Z0014352

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